Even without named storms, we're in for a warm, wet week
MONDAY UPDATE — At 11 a.m. the National Weather Service began issuing advisories on #TropicalStormFrancine with 50 mph winds in the Gulf of Mexico. It's expected to arrive on the western to central Louisiana coast Wednesday evening as a Category 1 hurricane. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Louisiana coastline from Cameron to Grand Isle.
While the National Hurricane Center has been watching a number of tropical waves or disturbances over the last week or so, development now finally seems likely or imminent.
Most pressing to land is what the NHC is currently calling Potential Tropical Cycle 6 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It doesn't have a center of circulation yet, and is meandering southeast of Texas. But forecasters say it already has sustained winds of 50 mph and they expect it to form into Tropical Storm Francine and become a Category 1 hurricane on an expected approach to the eastern Texas or western Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday.
Watches are up along the Mexican coast to south Texas; more are expected for the northern Gulf Coast sometime Monday.
And then, there is an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic. It is moving very slowly toward the Leeward islands, and a tropical depression is expected to form. At present course and speed it could take over a week to threaten any islands. Long range American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) forecast models do show a robust hurricane in the Atlantic early next week hundreds of miles east of Florida, moving north.
That GFS long range model shows a potential weak tropical storm form in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, moving toward Florida. (This is at 13 days out, when forecasts are considered "low confidence"), and another affecting South Carolina. But any system coming toward an already soaked Florida is cause for rain and flooding concern.
Even without a tropical system, this upcoming week is still expected to be wet. Rain chances all week are 60 to 70% with highs in the upper 80s as a old frontal boundary is draped over north Florida, adding instability to our already humid atmosphere. Keep the umbrella handy if out commuting or picking up kids from school.
