Think back to the times that Florida has been threatened by a named tropical storm or hurricane—Ian and Nicole in 2022, Idalia in 2023 and Debby, Helene and Milton in 2024. Meteorologists locally (at TV news stations) and nationally (at the National Hurricane Center) break out their paths of projected movement—“the cone”—to forecast where they think the storm is going.
For a century, those have come from maps of weather features in the atmosphere– high pressure domes, upper-level low pressure, fronts and troughs and ridges. In 2026, like much of everything else in computing, artificial intelligence (AI) is getting involved.
“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. “These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told the NOAA that these advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies are leading to more accurate real-time storm forecasts and warnings.
“Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible,” he said.
This year, the NHC will begin testing an experimental version of the tropical cyclone track forecast cone that will capture a greater range of possibilities for the track of the storm by incorporating uncertainties for both direction of movement and timing. Theoretically, that would improve the forecast paths for storms like Ian and 2004’s Hurricane Charley, which approached the Florida peninsula almost parallel to its western coast before making a north-northeast to northeast turn into southwest Florida then tracking across Central Florida into the Atlantic Ocean.
Last year, the NHC implemented an improved version of the tropical cyclone forecast cone
graphic that included tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland
areas for the continental United States. Had that
been in place in 2024, it would have shown the Tropical Storm Warning that was issued for Osceola and Orange counties during
the passage of Hurricane Helene and the Hurricane Warning during Hurricane Milton.
