TUESDAY 5 P.M. UPDATE — Tropical Storm Erin remains weak and headed on a westerly path. It is still forecast to become a hurricane, and long-range models are hinting that it may recurve to the east of the Bahamas into the Atlantic. But that is the better part of a week away, and the northern coast of Puerto Rico is on the edge of the National Hurricane Center's five-day "cone."
Stay alert for AroundOsceola.com updates.
MONDAY 11 A.M. UPDATE — The National Hurricane Center is beginning advisories on Tropical Storm Erin in the eastern Atlantic Ocean at 11 a.m.
After that, becoming a hurricane seems an almost certainty based on trusted computer models as it makes its way west or west-northwest across the vast Atlantic ocean over the next 7-10 days. Should it become a hurricane, it'd be the first one of the 2025 season, which is on par. On average, the first hurricane of the year comes Aug. 11.
Beyond that ... right now we're leaving it to the long range models (you know then by name after the last couple years ... GFS and ECMF, or European). Anything beyond 7-10 days is pure conjecture, but as we stand entering the work week, most members of the ensemble models carry a powerful hurricane into the central and western Atlantic into the early part of next week. Many do curve the storm north near or west of Bermuda, providing heavy waves and swells to our east coast, at a minimum.
It will come clearer as the National Hurricane Center is able to feed a number of formed-storm data sets into upcoming forecasts, and evaluate the changing weather patterns, like the Bermuda High. It is something to watch—but no need to watch it like a hawk for the next few days. If the threat increases to the U.S., Florida and Osceola County, we'll let you know.
Another thing to NOT do is get official forecasts from social media or Youtube-like sites that will post the single ensemble runs that may show a direct local impact in 11-13 days. Those creators will just be looking for hits and clicks. The fact those exist prove there is a small chance of an impact here—small, but more than zero.
The window of worry is open, but we have not yet entered the window of concern. So don't stress, but stay informed if the news changes. Get your kids off to school this week, and we'll report back with any changed news—without the hype.
