Colorado State tropical experts issue first 2026 season forecast
A quarter of 2026 is already behind us, meaning it will soon be June — and the start of the hurricane season.
While that is generally unwelcome news to us in Osceola County, the word from the tropical forecast experts may be … slightly good?!?
Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting a somewhat below-average Atlantic hurricane season in their initial 2026 forecast.
Science cites the forecast of a robust El Niño as a primary factor for their prediction of 13 named storms (e.g., tropical storms and hurricanes), of which they anticipate six to become hurricanes and two to become major (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).
These numbers are below the long-term seasonal average of 14, seven and three, respectively, and lower than recent seasons. The 2025 season had 13 named storms, five hurricanes and four that reached Category 3-5 (three reached Category 5, tied for second-most for a season).
“El Niño, a recurring climate pattern that is characterized by warmer than normal water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. These winds result in increased vertical wind shear which is unfavorable for Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification,” the report from CSU states, noting that the peak of the hurricane season (August-October) will be marked by a “moderate to strong ”El Niño event.
“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report. “Our analog seasons ranged from well below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to somewhat above average.”
Overall, currently observed sea surface temperatures across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic present mixed signals for the upcoming hurricane season for the CSU forecasters.
“Warmer waters in the western Atlantic would favor above-normal activity, while cooler waters in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic would favor below-normal activity. A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation. “Given the mixed signals in the Atlantic and the potential for a moderate to strong El Niño, the CSU forecast team is predicting a somewhat below-normal 2026 season.”
The authors do note that their initial April forecast is historically less accurate compared to those that follow in each season due to the considerable changes that can occur in the atmosphere and ocean between April and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The CSU team will also issue forecast updates on June 10, July 8 and Aug. 5.
