Pondering David Jolly’s just-announced campaign for governor, Floridians find themselves thinking, “Have I seen this before?”
Hmmm—a Republican officeholder from Pinellas County, rejected by the GOP, becomes first an independent and then a Democrat. So he runs for governor with the hope that the state’s growing mass of independents will join with fed-up members of both major parties to bring about a more sensible, less partisan new day in Florida politics.
And we all live happily ever after.
It’s a happy ending for a Frank Capra movie, perhaps. But in real life, in the gritty realpolitik of Florida campaigning, it’s what Shakespeare called “a consummation devoutly to be wished.” That’s how Hamlet described death, which is where dreamy-eyed political idealism usually leads a longshot campaign.
Such a scenario didn’t work for Charlie Crist, another party switcher, in 2022, and it’s not likely to work now for a snakebit Florida Democratic Party that was pronounced “dead” by its departing Senate leader, Jason Pizzo, last month. Pizzo is running a no-party bid for governor, which everyone expects will siphon off anti-Republican votes from Democrats and make it easier for the Republican nominee.
Not that the Republicans, with their 1.3 million-voter registration lead and 30year dominance of state government, need a whole lot of help. Jolly estimated he needs to raise $100 million— and will be outspent by twice that much next year. But he hopes for a sort of political jiu-jitsu, using the opponent’s strength against him.
“Now, Republicans, you have to play defense for the first time in 30 years,” he said.
That, Jolly believes, is how a Democratic governor can cope with a veto-proof Republican Legislature. OK, guys, do you oppose tax fairness? You won’t improve education because the governor’s from the other party? You really think voters care more about party labels than property taxes and insurance rates that shut out first-time homebuyers?
Sure, culture wars are fun and getting transgender flags out of schools appeals to voters, but do those Republican priorities really affect your life?
Jolly knows it’s going to be a hard sell, but he expressed confidence during an interview at the Governors Club, a posh lobbyist enclave a few blocks south of the Governor’s Mansion, two days before formally announcing his candidacy. He emphasized that “our central focus is on the affordability crisis”— property taxes, hurricane insurance, schools, the economic struggle of working families—which he said the Republican-run Legislature would rather talk about than seriously address.
“The difference between me and Republicans, though, is I think math is real,” Jolly said. “Having been an elected Republican, and watching what they’re doing in Tallahassee, I think elected Republicans are bad at math. Their numbers never work out, they wish away the reality of needing revenue to provide a safe community, for schools, for roads.”
A former GOP congressman and frequent MSNBC commentator, Jolly held his preannouncement interviews as the state House and Senate were forced into an extended session by a budget impasse. And the majority party is further weakened by some defiance of Gov. Ron DeSantis among GOP legislators, one reason we no longer hear so much about the governor’s wife running to succeed him.
To counter huge Republican advantages in money and voter registration, Jolly said Democrats “have to go places we haven’t gone in a long time.” That means “the faith community,” gun owners, adamantly anticommunist voters in the Miami area and Florida’s farm country.
“Democrats have been too timid to have those conversations,” he said.
Translation: fewer Pride banners, more American flags at party rallies.
A president’s party gets clobbered in the sixth year of a two-term presidency. President Donald Trump has carried Florida three times by increasing margins, but the MAGA magic will be wearing thin at this time next year. Such a solidly red state going purple would signal not only a pulse among Democrats, but an end of the Trump era for the GOP.
“Realistically, if a Democrat wins the governorship in ’26, we will have created a national story unlike we’ve seen in decades,” Jolly said. “We have to look around the corner and realize: What would that environment then look like for Republicans?”
It sounds do-able in the quiet confines of the Governors Club library. Whether Jolly can sell it in a Crestview town square or at a Clewiston farmers market will determine if, as he believes, 2026 really is a political pivot point for Florida.
Bill Cotterell is a retired Capitol reporter for United Press International and the Tallahassee Democrat. He can be reached at wrcott43@aol.com.
