The National Hurricane Center upgraded the central Atlantic storm to Hurricane Lee (75 mph) at 5 p.m. Wednesday, just 30 hours after it became Tropical Depression 13. And, according to forecast, he ain't done. Rapid intensification is set for, "when, not if," as Lee is expected to become a major hurricane and a Category 4 monster with 150 mph maximum-sustained winds just north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, which, at the very least, will get rough surf and life-threatening waves for those who choose to swim in them. Some intensity models bring it up to Category 5 intensity.
But, down the line, where is Lee going, and is Florida on the itinerary?
The short answer — for now — is: probably not, but that's a long way out.
Ensemble hurricane models like the GFS ("American model") and ECWRF ("European model") show the storm, currently headed west-northwest across the Atlantic, making a turn to the north in the 6-8 day time frame, and staying offshore of Florida. Those projections have the storm passing between the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda (serving as "goalposts") and possibly becoming a problem for Massachusetts to the Canadian maritimes.
If this weather pattern holds, the east coast of Florida would see battering waves on a coast already tenuous after Hurricanes Ian and Nicole in 2022. But, these are weather patterns that are being predicted for 5-8 days out, and there isn't 100 percent certainty.
In short, Lee is a storm to be watched by us for the next week or so, to make sure it does pass to the east, like the weather patterns suggest is most likely. Plus, you'll get to see a classic buzzsaw hurricane on the maps for a couple days.
And, if you've got plans for Nantucket or Nova Scotia for next weekend ... maybe reconsider them.
