Overnight, Tropical Depression 9 strengthened into Tropical Storm Ian. (Editor's note: my son's name is Ian. This should be a hoot for about a week.)
The National Hurricane Center's forecast track has not changed much from Friday night into Saturday morning, projecting a landfall south of Tampa along the Gulf Coast, and bringing the center of the circulation just west of Osceola County, through Lake and Sumter. THAT IS NOT FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM US TO AVOID SERIOUS TO DIRECT IMPACTS.
The current intensity forecast brings the storm onshore late Wednesday evening as a Category 3 major hurricane with top sustained winds of 115-120 mph. That would bring it to our direct west as a Category 2 with 90-100 mph winds. Again, SERIOUS TO DIRECT IMPACTS. And, don't hold firm to those intensity projections -- Hurricane Charley was projected to impact Tampa as a Category 2 storm in 2004; it hit Port Charlotte to the south as a Category 4.
But, while we are talking about 4 and 5-day dots, which have an average of 150 to 200-mile error, those still have time to change -- and still may based on the 8 a.m. runs of the computer models, which the NHC will incorporate into its 11 a.m. forecast update. The envelope of the models has shifted more to the west, including the reliable TVCN ensemble model, which has moved from a run right up I-4 overnight Friday to a Big Bend landfall this morning. (The only wrinkle to those is it will allow Ian to stay over the warm Gulf water longer, and possibly keep gaining strength -- at 9:30 a.m. The Weather Channel also picked up on this.
This from NHC forecaster Daniel Brown:
"The shear that has been plaguing Ian is forecast to continue to decrease over the next day or two while the cyclone moves over the warm waters of the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. This should allow for strengthening, with steady to rapid intensification (RI) quite possible once an inner core becomes established. Although the updated NHC forecast is just shy of forecasting RI (30 kt or greater increase over 24 h) during any 24-h period over the next few days, it calls a 45-kt increase in wind speed between 24 and 72 hours, and Ian is likely to be near major hurricane intensity when it approaches western Cuba. Since Ian is not expected to remain over Cuba long, little weakening is expected due to that land interaction, and the forecast again shows Ian as a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf when it is approaching the west coast of Florida."
