One expert says $4 gas could come by the end of the month if Middle East unrest continues
Tighten the wallet to fill up that tank.
Thanks to the recent crisis in the Middle East timed during the spring when many gas refineries are switching to "summer blend," the price at the pump has seen a drastic rise in the last week.
The national price is up from $2.997 last week to $3.478 Monday morning. In Florida it's up from $2.883 to $3.494, a 61 cent jump. Locally the jump is about the same, from $2.874 a week ago (and $2.849 a month ago) to $3.556 Monday morning.
Specifically, a station on Orange Blossom Trail featured 87 octane on Monday morning for $3.59 per gallon. Exactly one week ago the price at that pump was $2.84, jumping to $3.19 on Monday afternoon, $3.29 Wednesday morning and $3.49 Friday morning.
The conflict in the Middle East has sent crude oil prices over $100 per barrel. According to AAA, the recent increase puts the national average at the same price as it was in early April of 2025. Springtime typically sees higher gas prices as gasoline demand rises and summer-blend gasoline production begins. The last time the national average made a similar weekly jump was back in March of 2022 during the start of the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
That's the bad news ... now ready for the worse news? The trend isn't likely over according to one gas expert, noting the U.S. strikes on Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
"Traders are increasingly concerned about the possibility of supply disruptions in the region, particularly involving shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply moves," said said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. "With oil now much higher, the next cycle could push prices another 20–40 cents above the previous cycle level. For example, areas that last cycled to around $3.59 per gallon could jump to $3.79–$3.99, while markets that cycled near $3.69 could move toward $3.89–$4.09. In non-cycling markets, increases will likely occur more gradually, with stations raising prices 5–15 cents Monday, another 5–15 cents Tuesday, and potentially another 5–15 cents Wednesday before increases begin to slow later in the week."
De Haan said on his Substack site that he believes there is roughly an 80% chance the national average price of gasoline reaches $4 per gallon within the next month — or sooner.
