News Service of Florida — Storm forecasters have further downgraded predictions a little more than a month into the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which has so far produced a single named tropical system.
For a season initially anticipated to be “somewhat below-normal,” Colorado State University researchers on Wednesday reduced their projections for the number of named systems and the duration of activity, stating they “now anticipate a well below-normal season.” A day earlier, the private meteorological firm AccuWeather slightly reduced the range of named storms it predicted to develop in the Atlantic basin.
In both cases the forecast is tied to moderate El Niño conditions likely to intensify into a “strong” El Niño by the mid-September peak of the six-month hurricane season that began June 1.
El Niño refers to a warming of the ocean surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and resulting low-level surface winds that can disrupt normal weather patterns across the U.S. and globally.
“Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are near their long-term averages,” Colorado State University posted on Wednesday. “We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.”
Vertical wind shear usually helps weaken or disrupt storms.
An average storm season has 14 to 15 named storms, with seven reaching hurricane strength.
AccuWeather, which initially forecast between 11 and 16 named storms, now predicts the formation of eight to 14 named storms for the season. Unchanged is the forecast of four to seven hurricanes, with two to four becoming major systems. AccuWeather also forecasts three to five having a direct impact on the U.S.
“The northern and eastern Gulf Coast, the Carolinas, and the northeastern Caribbean remain higher-than-average risk areas, where storms can develop rapidly,” a release from AccuWeather stated.
With a caveat added, the Colorado State University release noted there is a “below-average probability” for a major hurricane to make landfall on the U.S. coastline before adding that “coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.”
The CSU forecast now sits at 9 named storms, down from 13 when the initial projections were released in April, and 11 when updated in June.
Also, the July forecast has four storms reaching hurricane strength instead of six as in the pre-season outlook and five when the numbers were revised in June.
As of Monday, the only named storm to arise was Tropical Storm Arthur, which brought flash flooding and tornadoes as it made landfall June 18 near Galveston, Texas.
None of the 13 storms named in 2025 affected Florida after the state received direct hits in 2024 from hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton.
