Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University—looked at as experts in the field—have made an early-season forecast for the 2025 season, and it’s much like what 2024 turned out to be.
Dr. Phillip Klotzbach and his team’s first forecast for this season call for 17 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes and four reaching Category 3 “major status”. To compare, 2024 saw 18 storms, 11 hurricanes and five majors, although CSU and other predictors expected more due to sea surface temperatures that were way—way, way—above historical average.
CSU will release updated forecasts in mid-June, July and August.
While those conditions conducive to storm formation still exist—ocean temperatures are still above normal—they aren’t forecast to be as “juicy” as last year, as a La Niña pattern conducive to formation and intensification is transitioning back to a neutral pattern (An “El Nino” pattern would be better for us).The team predicts that 2025 hurricane activity will be about 125% of the average season from 1991–2020. By comparison, 2024’s hurricane activity was about 130% of the average season.
“So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2017 (the latter included hurricanes Irma and Maria),” said Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report. “Our analog seasons ranged from having slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to being hyperactive.”
The report does not predict where storms will hit, just their presence. So what does this all mean?
It means to be prepared to act should a storm affect Osceola County, as it has done two of the last three years.
