Brace for rain, wind, flooding Tuesday and Wednesday as Tropical Storm Elsa approaches

Enjoy your Independence Day weekend! But keep an eye out that Tropical Storm Elsa won't let it go, and will likely affect our weather from late Tuesday through the day on Wednesday.

The National Hurricane Center projects the center of Elsa, packing maximum sustained winds of 60 mph as of the 11 a.m. advisory, to cross Cuba Monday, pass close to or over the lower Florida Keys Tuesday and make a landfall somewhere on the Florida west coast early Wednesday. The storm could drop 2 to 4 inches of rain in our area through Thursday morning, creating potential flooding. The NHC gives the Orlando area a 20 percent chance of getting tropical storm force (>40 mph) winds, mostly late Tuesday into Wednesday, and a 3 percent chance of 60 mph winds. In line with other intensity guidance models, the NHC does not believe Elsa will regain the hurricane force it briefly had Saturday.

But those in Osceola County should not focus on the track and let their guard down. NHC forecaster Richard Pasch said in one of Saturday's storm discussions, "Elsa should become a very asymmetrical tropical cyclone (Tuesday and Wednesday) with most of the heavy rain and strongest winds displaced along and to the east of the forecast track."

Bottom Line: Here in Osceola County it's time to take a good look at your annual hurricane plans and supply stash. Make sure you have extra batteries for your flashlights and some non-perishable food in the off chance power goes out due to Elsa. If you didn't stock up during the recent disaster supply tax free holiday, you can still shop tax-free on some items through Wednesday. As part of Freedom Week Sales Tax Holiday, the first $50 of camping stoves, first $30 of camping lanterns or flashlights and first $250 of outdoor gas or charcoal grills are tax free.