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Hurricane researchers updated their 2023 storm season forecast on July 6.
Florida could see a more significant hurricane impact than originally forecast after an updated storm forecast was released last week.
Colorado State University hurricane researchers released the study on July 6, showing an “above average” Atlantic hurricane season in 2023. A study published in June was elevated from a “near average” season.
The new forecast now predicts 18 hurricanes compared to the 13 recently predicted.
The latest prediction comes after record warm sea temperatures were reported in the Atlantic Ocean, CSU researchers said.
But the prediction is not set in stone. According to the study, “Researchers caution that there is more uncertainty than normal with this outlook because of conflicting signals between much warmer than normal Atlantic waters and an expected robust El Niño for the peak of the hurricane season. El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, which can tear apart storms as they form, but the extreme anomalous warmth in the Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven wind shear.”
The CSU team prediction of 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes could have a Saffir/Simpson category of 3-5 and sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. The forecast includes an unnamed subtropical storm in January and Tropical Storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy in June. The researchers estimate the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States to be above the long-term average.
Osceola County officials recently urged residents to prepare for the storm season.
“Our team was tested last year and I’m grateful for their continued dedication and preparation. Their vigilance and planning help keep our community safe when hurricanes and other emergencies arise,” Osceola Commission Chairwoman Viviana Janer said. “Residents should create an emergency plan and gather supplies for themselves and their families in case a storm comes our way.”
The state of Florida will host a second sales tax holiday, Aug. 26 to Sept. 8, just prior to the peak of hurricane season.
Residents should prepare for hurricane season by creating a plan and a disaster supply kit, securing personal property and having a place to go in the event of an evacuation, including arrangements for pets, county officials said. Learn more at http:// readyosceola.org.
Residents with concerns about storm drains, roadside drainage ditches, drainage culverts and large outfall ditches should call 407742-7500 to report issues.
“Now is the time to prepare your families for this hurricane season, to make plans if you live in a low lying/flood prone area and where you will go if you must evacuate your home,” said Osceola Emergency Management Director Bill Litton. “Please use the next couple of weeks to build your home disaster kit to include at least 5 days of food/water, a first aid kit, prescription medications, a battery-operated radio and flashlight. Do not wait to gather your supplies.”
Officials urge residents to stay informed by monitoring weather reports and by receiving emergency phone alerts through Osceola’s free AlertOsceola service, by texting the word “alertosceola” to 888777.
The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
