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Florida’s near-historic low unemployment rate remained at 2.8 percent in October, as the state’s labor force continued to grow. FILE PHOTO
Florida’s near-historic low unemployment rate remained at 2.8 percent in October, as the state’s labor force continued to grow. But, economists think Florida might be due for an uptick in the jobless rate — which might not necessarily be a bad thing.
The state Department of Commerce announced the 2.8 percent October unemployment rate, representing 318,000 people out-of-work from a labor force of 11.174 million. The number of unemployed people increased 9,000 from September, while the labor force grew by 21,000. The labor force has grown by 334,000 over the past year.
During the first half of 2023, Florida had a 2.7 percent unemployment rate, which then ticked up to 2.8 percent. Those figures were close to a record low of 2.4 percent during the housing boom of 2006, Amy Baker, coordinator of the Legislature’s Office of Economic & Demographic Research, said.
Gov. Ron DeSantis played up Florida’s “very business-friendly climate” last week during an appearance in Jacksonville to sign a memorandum of understanding with the United Kingdom about trade in areas such as space, financial technology, artificial intelligence and legal services.
“When people vote with their feet, that is pretty powerful about who is doing well and who is not,” DeSantis said. “The pattern has been very clear for a few years, with Florida being the number one recipient for that.”
But Baker told members of the House Appropriations Committee on Tuesday that the jobless rate should slowly increase to 4.3 percent over the next couple of years.
“We do expect as the Federal Reserve continues to take actions and maintain tight fiscal policies that this unemployment rate will start eking up,” Baker said.
Baker, however, added that might not be a bad thing, as “We don’t have a lot of slack.”
And with an unemployment rate closer to 4 percent, the economy “is more efficient,” she said.
“We consider that enough slack in the labor market that people can change jobs, they can move in and out of the state, and things just continue operating without any pressure,” Baker said.
Jimmy Heckman, the Department of Commerce’s chief of workforce statistics and economic research, agreed it will be difficult for the state to maintain the current pace.
“We’re at a nunemployment rate that is very, very close to historical low levels. So, it’ll be very hard to predict that we see levels lower than that,” Heckman said Friday during a conference call with reporters.
The state saw jobs increases in October in sectors such as construction, a category including trade, transportation and utilities and a category including education and health services.
The Jacksonville, Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford and Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island metro areas were at 3.1 percent. The highest unemployment rate was in the Homosassa Springs area at 4.6 percent, followed by the Sebring area at 4.5 percent and The Villages area at 4.4 percent.
