Just 48 hours ago, Hurricane Lee was a tropical storm with 50 mph top-end winds.
Thursday morning, it was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds.
This evening, as you go to bed, it is a monster Category 5 storm.
The National Hurricane Center upgraded it at 11 p.m., noting Lee's 160 mph winds and central pressure of 928 millibars (the lower, the stronger). That's a drop of 75 millibars in 24 hours -- unheard of -- and a 61 mb drop since this morning. "Rapid deepening" is defined as a 42-mb drop or a 35 mph increase in top winds in 24 hours.
And it's not done. The NHC predicts a 180 mph storm sometime Friday. "Additional strengthening appears likely, as Lee remains in a low-shear environment and over very warm waters near 30 degrees Celsius," the NHC said in the 11 p.m. storm discussion. It noted that one intensity model showed a peak intensity on Friday night near 200 mph. "But that's getting into rarefied air ... it is likely that Lee's intensity will fluctuate for much of the forecast period. Lee is forecast to remain a dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane for the next 5 days."
The path of projected movement keeps Lee north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Beyond five days, most reliable models turn the storm north into the Atlantic west of Bermuda. If that holds, the only effects Florida would feel would be high surf and big swells on the east coast. But we'll be watching this storm for another week, as it's forecast to slow its forward movement into Monday and Tuesday, and could still be due east of us on Wednesday.
"Although there are some indications that Lee might begin a northward turn around the middle of next week, it is still way to soon to focus on specific model scenarios that far out into the future," the NHC said.
How rare is a Category 5 storm in the Atlantic Ocean? There were two (Dorian, which devastated Grand Bahama Island, and Lorenzo) in 2019, who can forget Irma in 2017, and then you have to go back to 2003, when Isabel reached Cat 5 north and east of the Bahamas before striking South Carolina as a Category 3 storm.
