A tropical disturbance will move northwest near or across the central and northern Bahama Islands today through tonight, while gradually becoming better organized. It is forecast to become a tropical storm as it makes its closest approach the east central Florida coast Saturday and Saturday night. Until the system becomes better organized, there remains considerable uncertainty in the exact forecast track. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for all coastal counties in East Central Florida. This includes Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River, Brevard, and Volusia Counties. Regardless of the development and exact track, there will be an increased chance for tropical storm force wind gusts, along with periods of heavy rain tonight through Saturday night. This threat will be highest along the coast, and especially the barrier islands from Sebastian Inlet northward, where wind gusts could reach 50 mph. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast for the event, along with isolated amounts of 5 to 6 inches as based on the latest forecast track. Conditions along the immediate coast, including the beaches and surf zone remain a significant concern. The surf is expected to become increasingly rough with large breaking waves, and moderate beach erosion around the times of high tide through early Sunday morning. The threat for numerous strong and potentially deadly Rip Currents will remain high through this weekend. The next high tide cycles will occur along the Florida east coast around 830 PM tonight, between 845 AM and 900 AM Saturday morning, and between 900 PM and 915 PM Saturday night. Persons in east central Florida should keep track of the latest forecasts and statements from the National Hurricane Center, and your National Weather Service office in Melbourne through this weekend.