Dorian now nearly stationary, west-northwestward turn expected to resume overnight
Dorian has become nearly stationary this afternoon with the two most
recent aircraft fixes showing essentially no motion.  A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion should resume overnight and
continue into early Tuesday, with the eye and devastating winds only
slowly pulling away from Grand Bahama Island.  By Tuesday afternoon,
Dorian should begin its much anticipated northwestward turn as a
weakness becomes more pronounced in the subtropical ridge.  Although
the center of Dorian is forecast to move near, but parallel to, the
Florida east coast, only a small deviation of the track toward the
west would bring the core of the hurricane onshore.  A broad mid-
latitude trough should help turn Dorian northeastward by Wednesday
night, and the track models show the center coming precariously
close to the southeastern United States coast.  The tracks from the
1200 UTC runs of the global models have remained fairly stable,
which has resulted in little overall change to the latest NHC track
forecast.