By Brian McBride
Associate Editor

With Hurricane Preparedness Week starting Sunday, local emergency officials are gearing up for the June 1 start of the 2010 hurricane season and emphasized that Osceola County residents should get ready for what was forecasted to be a busy six months.

According to AccuWeather.

com, which provides local forecasts across the nation, the upcoming hurricane season could be a top-10 year, a stark contrast from the relatively calm 2009 season, which only saw five hurricanes.

AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Meteorologist Joe Bastardi predicted a total of 16 to 18 storms this season. Only eight years in the 160 years of record-keeping has there been 16 or more storms in a season, according to AccuWeather.com.

The Colorado State University forecast team, which makes predictions each year led by William Gray, said there is 45 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula.

“It just takes one to ruin your day,” said St. Cloud Fire Rescue Assistant Fire Chief Bill Johnston, who coordinates the hurricane preparedness efforts for St. Cloud.

The Accuweather forecast team expected at least six storms to impact the U.S. coastline – slightly more than one out of every three. In a normal year, one out of every five named storms (20 percent) in the Atlantic basin impacts the U.S. In the 2005 season, 36 percent of the storms affected the United States, while 50 percent impacted the U.S. in 1998 and 2008. There were 10 storms in 1998, 15 in 2005.

"From the standpoint of number of storm threats from the tropics to the U.S. coastline, we will at least rival 2008, and in the extreme case, this season could end up in a category only exceeded by 2005," Bastardi said in a press release.

With a rapid warming of the Gulf of Mexico and a collapsing El Nino pattern, which were both characteristics of the 1998 and 2005 seasons, Bastardi said the Atlantic basin looks "textbook" for a major season.

“I think that it gets people's attention a little bit better,” Johnston said about the busy season forecasted.

Osceola County officials began training and preparing for hurricane season just after the Christmas holidays, County Emergency Management Director David Casto said.

“Our planning started a long time ago,” he said.

Last week, county officials held a three-day hurricane drill, which included the fine-tuning of the resident information center phone bank and damage assessment.

Johnston said St. Cloud Fire Rescue recently participated in a statewide hurricane drill through the Florida Division of Emergency Management and held one locally with county officials, focusing on the steps necessary when a storm is 48 hours out, 24 hours away and then dealing with the storm’s aftermath. And St. Cloud fire officials recently attended a Federal Emergency Management Agency workshop on critical employee preparedness, which teaches employees how to juggle city responsibilities and take care of their own family needs.

In 2004, Hurricane Charley pounded Osceola County as a Category 2 storm, damaging homes and stores and knocking out power for weeks in some areas. Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne followed, bringing a deluge of rain.

“Whether it's an active or an inactive season, the devastation can be the same,” Casto said, pointing to Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which was not a busy storm season.

A new issue this year is how the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico will come into play with hurricane season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the spill would have no effect on the overall seasonal number of tropical storms and hurricanes.

And administration officials said they did not yet understand the properties of the oil nor yet knew what the interaction would be with a hurricane. But there are many hypotheses that NOAA hurricane forecasters and researchers have. Among them are:

What would happen to a hurricane that runs through this oil slick?

If the slick remains small in comparison to a typical hurricane’s general environment and size, as is currently the case, the anticipated impact on the hurricane would be minimal. The oil would not be expected to appreciably affect either the intensity or the track of a fully developed tropical storm or hurricane. The oil slick would have little effect on the storm surge or near-shore wave heights.

What would the hurricane do to the oil slick?

The high winds and seas would mix and “weather” the oil, which helps accelerate the biodegradation process, administration officials said. The high winds may distribute oil over a wide area but it is difficult to model exactly where the oil may be transported. Storm surges may carry oil inland mixed with hurricane debris. Movement of oil in a hurricane would depend greatly on the track of the hurricane. A hurricane passing to the west of the oil slick could drive a large volume of oil to the coast.

Meanwhile, emergency officials urged residents to have a plan and supplies in place. According to the Kissimmee Fire Department's website:

• An information link to the outside is critical.  Keep a battery-operated radio and extra batteries on hand and make sure family members know where the radio is kept.

• Post emergency numbers (fire, police and ambulance) by the phone. Teach children how to call 9-1-1 for help.

• Teach responsible family members how to turn off the utilities in your home.

• Identify family meeting places outside your neighborhood in case you are separated and be sure everyone is clear about these locations.

• Develop an emergency communication plan. Ask an out-of-state relative or friend to serve as the family’s contact. Make sure everyone knows the telephone number of this contact person.

• Plan and be familiar with escape routes in case you need to evacuate your neighborhood.  Fuel your car and be sure to have some cash on hand.

• Be sure to include pets in your family disaster plan. Pets are usually not allowed at public shelters.  Also consider any other special circumstances such as if you have babies, elders or anyone with a disability in your family.

• Protect your home (roof, windows, doors) and trim dead branches from trees.

According to the National Hurricane Center:

• Discuss the type of hazards that could affect your family. Know your home's vulnerability to storm surge, flooding and wind.

• Locate a safe room or the safest areas in your home for each hurricane hazard. In certain circumstances, the safest areas may not be your home but within your community.

• Determine escape routes from your home and places to meet. These should be measured in tens of miles rather than hundreds of miles.

• Check your insurance coverage, since flood damage is not usually covered by homeowners insurance.

• Stock non-perishable emergency supplies and a disaster supply kit.

• Use a NOAA weather radio. Remember to replace its battery every six months, as you do with your smoke detectors.

• Take first aid, CPR and disaster preparedness classes.

Supplies

• Water – at least one gallon daily per person for three to seven days

• Food – at least enough for three to seven days. It includes non-perishable packaged or canned food/juices; foods for infants or the elderly, snack foods, non-electric can opener, cooking tools/fuel and paper plates/plastic utensils

• Blankets/pillows

• Clothing – seasonal items, raingear and sturdy shoes

• First aid kit, medicines and prescription drugs

• Special items for babies and the elderly

• Toiletries, hygiene items and moisture wipes

• Flashlight and batteries

• Telephones – fully charged cell phone with an extra battery and a traditional (not cordless) telephone set

• Cash (with some small bills) and credit cards – banks and ATMs may not be available for extended periods

• Keys

• Toys, books and games

• Keep important documents in a waterproof container or watertight resealable plastic bag, such as insurance policies, medical records, bank account numbers and Social Security cards.

• Tools – keep a set with you during the storm

• Vehicle fuel tanks filled

The names for the 2010 season according to the hurricane center will be Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie and Walte.